Pubs & Bars: Numbers of drinkers in the North East approaching Pre-Covid levels, while Londoners are staying away

Three weeks ago lockdown restrictions were further eased, and Bars & Pubs could reopen their doors across England.

In a new landscape, with social distancing measures and undoubted long-term changes in customer behaviour, Purple’s is able to provide insight into the first few weeks of recovery using data analytics.

By analysing data from our extensive range of pub and bar venues across the country, along with associated demographic data, Purple can see key information on who and where has embraced the ‘new normal’ and which customers are choosing to remain cautious are apparent.

This insight into how different people and different regions are reacting to reopening of pubs and bars is invaluable in understanding which customers are less likely to return, and which areas are most impacted by behaviour changes.

Huge Regional Variance in returning visitor numbers
Using an average based on the same period for 2019, and an average based on pre-lockdown data, Purple has calculated expected visit numbers to Pubs & Bars across English regions.

Using data from July 4th onwards, average weekly visits have been calculated to analyse which regions are recovering quickly, and where visitors are staying away in the first few weeks since reopening.

In the North East visits are around 85% of what would normally be expected, highlighting the quick recovery across the region, this is followed by the West Midlands, at just over 70%.

The national average comparing visits against the expected number is 54%, meaning generally across the country just over half the number of visits that would be expected have occurred since July 4th.

Most regions follow this trend closely, only London far below this where visits are only 20% of what would be expected.

With social-distancing, booking requirements, time limits, and seemingly a larger focus on food across some establishments, Purple continues to track how all these factors impact visitor behaviour.

Notable differences in behaviour based on demographic and region
The overall data across the country in terms of age-range and gender, visits is generally consistent.

In age-range specifically, when considering which groups make up visits following the reopening of Pubs & Bars, it is 18-24-year-olds, and 45-64-year-olds who are overrepresented compared to what would be expected of the demographic make-up pre-Covid.

There is less of a disparity in gender at a national level, where both males and females are visiting in similar numbers, indicating that overall behaviour is consistent.

Analysing specific regions show some interesting insights into those most likely to return, with some groups seemingly over-represented and visiting Pubs and Bars more frequently now than before lockdown.

Purple suggests this may be due to seasonality and also a short-term reaction to the ‘freedom’ of the easing of lockdown restrictions.

Looking specifically at the North East, there are some demographics which have increased visits against the expected average from pre-lockdown.

In Females, particularly in the 35-54 age bracket, we see 30% more visits than average while in 18-24-year-olds, in contrast to the national trend, the recovery has been less pronounced.

The data highlights the need for a more granular approach to analysis in demographics across different regions, and the complexities many businesses will face in the coming months in how to reassure customers and how to encourage them to return.

Purple will continue to monitor and measure the impact of coronavirus as life returns to normal, in terms of regions, demographics and across a range of industries.

Similar information will be available in the coming weeks and months as a clearer picture of how key sectors are performing and recovering in the post-Covid world.

For further information or questions please contact the Purple Data Science team.

Dean Cookson
Dean.cookson@purple.ai

Source: RealWire